By Iris Brown

Bola Tinubu, the candidate from the ruling All Progressive Congress Party, has been announced the winner of the 2023 Nigerian election by the country’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) chairperson Muhammed Yakubu. It is reported that Tinubu received around 36% of the overall vote. A candidate must secure over 25% of the vote in at least 24 of Nigeria’s 36 states, and win a plurality of states. 

Yet opposition parties are claiming that the election was disingenuous, and that the results are fabricated. There are also claims of voter intimidation and suppression. The Labour Party, a smaller yet prominent opposition, has revealed they will challenge the results in the nation’s courts. Many civilians are disappointed in the result as well. A small demonstration was held in the capital city, Abuja, the day the election result was announced. The day after, a crowd of predominantly young people marched to the National Collation Centre in the city, demanding Mr Yakubu be fired from his role.

Is there any merit to these accusations of election fraud? Certainly since the infamous 2020 US election, defeated leaders in multiple countries have taken inspiration from former President Donald Trump and denied their election losses by claiming the election was rigged against them. Indeed, claiming electoral fraud has become a popular tactic, with conspiracy theorists in Australia suggesting that the 2022 election of Antony Albanese was rigged, after harassing many electoral staff at polling stations. 

However the Nigerian case may be more complex. Nigeria, Africa’s most populated country, became a democracy in 1999, but fair and regular elections have not become the norm, with some past elections being cancelled at short notice. Corruption and poor management has also resulted in the profits made from Nigeria’s petroleum economy being kept in the hands of a few, with little benefit to the wider population. In recent times, in line with most of the world, the country has been experiencing an economic crisis, with rising inflation rates, cash shortages, and currency devaluation. Many people were dissatisfied with the previous President Muhammadu Buhari, also from the All Progressive Congress Party. Under Buhari’s rule, there was little to show for promises of economic regeneration and increased security from groups such as Boko Haram.  

The European Union Election Observation Mission reported that the days leading up to the election in February saw serious coordinated violent acts in relation to the election. They also noted the lack of planning and accessibility, with fuel shortages restricting movement of citizens. Voter turnout was at just 25-30%, and there have been reports of various polling locations being shut or moved. The vote count was scheduled to be updated regularly by the INEC, yet there were large time gaps in which no information was provided. This has led to speculation of ballot falsification. 

Whether electoral fraud occurred or not, Mr Tinubu looks set to be inaugurated, with six Nigerian states dropping their case against the party. The only possible challenge now can come from Nigeria’s opposition parties.